2012 Election Prediction

From Zanecorpwiki

There's some ill omens for the next 2 years. After Mitch McConnell's announcement to the National Journal (paywalled) that his top priority would be making sure Obama was a "one term President" and numerous other signs, it looks at this point is if th Republicans are going to stick to the game plan of "no" even after coming into a significant majority in the House.

Obviously the belief is that they can blame the lack of progress that they contribute to entirely on the Democrats and thus be rewarded with the Senate and potentially the Presidency in 2012. My prediction: they will be disappointed.

To be frank, I'll generally vote Democrat, but I wouldn't mind some deficit reduction and long term tightening of the belt. I think our best chance to get balanced policies is with divided control. So I really wish the Republicans would get to work.

If they continue down this path of knee jerk obstruction and obstinate refusal, I think they'll have problems in 2012. The reason is simple: you don't win plaudits by denouncing those in power when you're the one in power. The Republicans are in a different role now and blindly applying the same tactics to their changed situation will, I believe, be disastrous for them. It would be nutty, but if they go whole hog down this path of "no", I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems won back the House in 2012.

Which would be unfortunate because, considering all the factors and the current make up of the parties, I think the Dems in the Senate and Executive and Republicans in the House is actually the ideal make up. It will come as no surprise, though, if the politicians insist on fucking it up.