Afghanistan Plan
From Zanecorpwiki
My sense of the national mood, the facts as I understand them, and from talking with friends on the subject is there are two consensus camps on Afghanistan.
First, there are those that within the realm of what we're willing and able to do, there's nothing that will have much effect or change the end result. All we do by staying in Afghanistan is spend lives and resources to delay the inevitable.
In the other camp are those that believe that focus on what they see as our responsibility. The idea being that now that we're involved, we've become responsible. Though the second group is more optimistic, the likely outcome is frankly less important because it's not a real plotick triangulation, but the discharge of a duty.
What pretty much everyone seems to be in agreement on, however, is that we are not engaged in nation building. This is unfortunate because nation building is the only thing that could do any good, and it's also something that's almost guaranteed to do a lot of good.
The "problem" with nation building is two fold. First, it's assumed to be even more expensive and costly than the "targeted" effort we're currently engaged in. Second, it conjures images of the our 60's and 70's adventures with dictators and puppet governments which, AFAIK, are more or less universally considered to have been bad ideas.
This in unfortunate because the data is quite clear: the way to reduce violence, increase stability, and the best guarantee of peace within a country is the institution of rule of law, good enforcement, fostering civil institutions, and the creation of an accountable governmental system. In other words, nation building.[notes 1]
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Compassionate Nation Building
You cannot go in and create a nation by fiat. The prop governments of the past prove this. What I'm proposing is that Afghanistan needs primarily security, secondarily contributions of skills and knowledge, and a little bit of guidance as to how to become a nation. The nation that Afghanistan becomes must be chosen and shaped by the Afghani, but these three things: security, knowledge, and guidance, are necessary for the geo-political region to become a unified nation.
Why is it so important that they become a nation? Factually we know that the transition from tribal/local systems to a strong national system is the best way to reduce violence and increase stability. By and large, even bad nations are less violent than good tribes. The more liberal freedoms and civil institutions a nation has, the more peaceful and prosperous they become.
It cannot be imperialism or colonialism, and the hard part is that the effort has to be a gift. If we provide the right conditions for a more peaceful and secure society to develop, it will, but the details of what that new society looks like must be determined by the Afghanis themselves.
It's possible there are other solutions, but everything else is guesswork. There's no evidence at all that "counter-insurgency" will make things better. Unless we plan to occupy the nation under strict and harsh military rule, sweep and hold bears not long term promise. It's quite clearly build a nation or nothing.
International Cooperation
Building a nation is a costly, long term affair, and without the support of the international community, it's more than the US can do alone. We need international cooperation to:
- build credibility. No matter what the US did, one nation acting unilaterally would never have the trust or belief necessary. It's not only a question of intentions, but long term commitment and ability.
- cover costs. I don't know that nation building would cost much more than we're already spending, but what we're already spending is not sustainable in the long run. The financial and human cost has to be spread out.
- leverage. The US is far away. We need Russia and China who supply and trade with Afghanistan to be involved in the process. We need something other than our imposed presence which touches the people today.
- perspective. The US is nothing like Afghanistan. Maybe the peoples of Sarajevo could better relate.
Long Haul
You're not going to be able to go into Afghanistan, oversee an election or two, and then pull out expecting that democratic institutions and values have taken firm root. It's a fundamentally tribal and hyper-local society. There are very few Afghanis because that's not how most individuals see themselves.
It'll take awhile for the necessary institutions to take root. More fundamentally, Afghanis will need some number of years living with security and meaningful self rule just to understand why it's so important and how beneficial it can be. Those who have experienced can tell the leaders about it and get key players to buy in early, but to sell the common individual they're going to have to live it.
Summary
Much is made about Afghan society and the corruption and other problems, and these are serious issues but they're all fixable. Not only that, but we know how to fix them. It won't be easy, but I do believe that if the international community were to make the commitment to stabilize and secure Afghanistan, foster civil institutions and meaningful self rule, a stable, modern nation would blossom over the course of the next 10-20 years.
That's a long time and it would be expensive, but it's much preferable to the alternatives and, in my view, is clearly a net positive. For me it boils down to this question: would I volunteer to fight for a year in Afghanistan today? No. Not for a million dollars. Not because "it's a bad war", but because our intentions is irrelevant. I'd be wasting my time and contributing to a continuing mistake.
However, I'd volunteer for a concerted, committed, long term effort to stabilize and bring peace to the Afghan people under the sketch I've given here. I'd volunteer to do it for Dafur or anywhere else in the world as well.
Notes
- ↑ Steven Pinker is recognized as an authority in this field.
