Counter Cyclical What?
From Zanecorpwiki
2010-02-12
Scanning through a recent email from Senator John Cornyn, I was pleased to see that he'd highlighted his own ignorance by making the following statement bold:
At a time when all Americans are having to tighten their belts and be watchful of their spending, so too should the federal government.
So I am to understand from this that if the Republicans had their way, they would go against the consensus of experts (liberal and conservative) and choosing to repeat the mistakes that led this country into the first Great Depression. Either Cornyn is a fool, ignorant of both history and economics, or he is a cynical bastard who is using the fact that his party is in the minority as an excuse to make irresponsible statements that he never intends to implement.
Absolutely, there is a valid concern here. In 2010, the US deficit is larger than the budget of every nation in the world except Japan and Britain.[notes 1] There's no question that the deficit has sharply rising in absolute terms, and that's probably not the best thing in the world. Depending on how you look at, things are going great or terrible.
The deficit as a percentage of GDP fell for much of the aughts. Or you could argue that that fall was the result of a transitory bubble, and what you really need to do moving average of GDP versus a moving average of debt.
The deficit as percent of GDP after WWII was more than double what it is now, and that was paid almost instantly. Or you could say this "percent of GDP stuff is crap, we never came down off our debt addiction after WWII and it's distorting our policies and dampening our economy.
Point is, it's a complex question, so maybe I'm little harsh in dismissing Cornyn's statements as dumb. It's not the content of the statement so much as the idea that we can reduce this kind of complexity--that no one has a solid handle on--into bold sound bytes shot off like fireworks in the night. What we need is a substantial debate and engagement, all the time with an understanding that no one will have the "best" answer, so we'll all just have to make due with a well thought out, consensus that's good enough.
And personally, I think that good enough would turn out to be pretty good if we could just bring ourselves to stop acting like children do the work.
Notes
- ↑ From Shields and Brooks aired 2010-01-29.
