Doubling Down on Stupid

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To be clear, customer's aren't just stupid, but stupid is a part of the customer make up. Just had my third experience of the following:

  1. Customer gets bad work. Usually ends up have to wait longer and pay more to get less. A shit trick.
  2. I give a customer a realistic estimate. Typically less than they've already paid, but more than the original naive estimate.
  3. Double Down "But the original quote was half your quote! I really think it should cost half."
  4. I give some tactful response pointing out the whole reason you're talking to me is because you're first developer clearly didn't understand what they were talking about.
  5. Double Down Again !Three times! that I know of, the customer gets feedback from the first developer on my proposal.

Relying on Estimates Known to be Incorrect

When the new estimate is higher, the customers often insist that the estimate was good and the implementation was bad. There's no rational basis for this, it's just convenient. I guarantee you, if you come in saying, "Oh man, they were overcharging you something terrible. I can do it $5K," not a single one would insist that the "this really is a $10K project" because that's what's in the original estimate.

I understand wanting to believe the lower estimate is the "real cost" of the project, but simply wanting it to be true has no bearing on the actual truth of the thing. If customer's went to other developers who they trusted and got competing bids, that would make sense. What doesn't make sense is going to the one person who know with 100% certainty is incorrect and asking them their thoughts.

The original estimate is not a valid data point. Throw it out. Higher, lower, doesn't matter. It may be happen to be right in the same way that a stopped clock may happen to be right, but you don't wear a stopped watch and guess at the time of day based on what it tells you. You throw the thing away. You're better off guessing "noon" if it's light and "midnight" if it's dark.

Seeking the Conflicted Anti-Expert

Not only do the customer's reliable rely on unreliable estimates, but they even more strangely solicit feedback from the original developer on my proposal. Regarding the estimate, I can kinda see how you get a number stuck in your head. There's no reason not to believe it initially, and the customer probably ends up repeating it hundreds of times in their own head and to the original developer. Saying "You said it would cost such and such" wears a deep groove after 100 repetitions.

But what thought process could possibly make one think that the best person to comment on the new proposal is the person that fucked up the old proposal? Would you go back to a doctor who gave you a bad diagnosis and ask about the new diagnosis? If an accountant fucks up your taxes, is that the person you ask to confirm your new accountants work?

No. That would be stupid.

But in my experience, customers more often than not go back to the original developer that fucked everything up asking "What about this new guy?" This is even worse than continuing to believe in the original estimate because in that case, the mistake is "Well, the old developer still knows about software even if their terrible at it." I would argue that's a silly proposition, but it's not entirely impossible. Just highly unlikely.

The old developer looks like an anti-expert. But getting them to comment on the new proposal is not only seeking advice from an anti-expert, but seeking advice from an entirely compromised party. The customer is asking the person potentially being replaced to comment on the person replacing them. It's a mind boggling that anyone would think this would produce useful information. It's like asking a horse and buggy driver whether you should buy a car. I'll bet my barber thinks I should get a tapered fade from them rather than a self-administered burr.

Or Maybe It's Me

Or maybe I'm the stupid one here. You could charitably say I'm unlucky, but the fact is that for so many of what I thought were legitimate prospective clients, I'm actually just a lever in negotiations. My real function is--at significant cost and no compensation--to provide the would-be customer with a credible threat.

God that's depressing.

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